A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
